Tuesday, April 29, 2008

MBA: Mortgage application volume falls on few refinancings - Apr. 30, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Mortgage application volume fell 11.1% during the week ending April 25, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey.

The MBA's application index fell to 567 from 637.6 the previous week.

Refinance volume fell 16.7%, while purchase application volume decreased 4.8% during the week. Refinance applications accounted for 45.7% of total application volume.

The index peaked at 1,856.7 during the week ending May 30, 2003, at the height of the housing boom.

An index value of 100 is equal to the application volume on March 16, 1990, the first week the MBA tracked application volume. A reading of 567 means mortgage application activity is 5.67 times higher than it was when the MBA began tracking the data.

The survey provides a snapshot of mortgage lending activity among mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. It covers about 50% of all residential retail mortgage originations each week.

Application volume fell despite declines in interest rates. The average interest rate for traditional, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 6.01% during the week ending April 25 from 6.04% the previous week.

Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, often a popular option for refinancing a loan, fell to 5.53% from 5.6%.

The average rate for one-year adjustable-rate mortgages declined to 6.86% from 6.93%. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Monday, April 28, 2008

No brakes on housing prices - Apr. 29, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- February home prices posted record declines according to the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index, which was released Tuesday.

In all, 17 of the 20 cities on the S&P Case/Shiller Home Price Index posted the largest year-over-year declines ever recorded by the Index; ten cities posted double-digit dips.

The 20-city index is down 12.7%, while the 10-city Case/Shiller index is down 13.6% year-over-year.

"There is no sign of a bottom in the numbers," S&P spokesman said M. Blitzer, said in a prepared statement. "Prices of single family homes continue to drop across the nation."

Prices in the Las Vegas metro area have plunged more than any other city, down 22.8% over the 12 months through February. Miami prices plummeted 21.7%. In Phoenix, they've fallen 20.8%.

Of the 20 cities Case/Shiller tracks, only Charlotte, N.C. showed higher prices , up 1.5% over the 12-month period. Other metro areas recorded modest price declines, including Portland, Ore., down 2.0%, Seattle, off 2.7% and Dallas, 4.1%. In the nation's largest city, New York, metro area prices dropped a modest 6.6%. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Foreclosures spike 112%, with no end in sight - Apr. 29, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- One out of every 194 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in the first three months of 2008, according to the latest figures released Tuesday by RealtyTrac.

There were nearly 650,000 foreclosure filings - which include notices of default, auction sales and bank repossessions - issued during the first quarter of 2008. That's up 23% from the last quarter of 2007, and up a staggering 112% from the same period a year ago.

So far this year 156,463 families have lost their homes to bank repossessions.

"Foreclosure activity hasn't slowed down yet," said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, "but I was a little surprised that foreclosure filings more than doubled since last year."

Foreclosures increased in 46 states, and in 90 of the nation's 100 largest metro areas during the first quarter. Some regions that had been only marginally impacted by the mortgage meltdown recorded large increases in filings. In Connecticut, for instance, filings tripled compared with the first three months of 2007. Massachusetts recorded a 260% increase.

The worst hit states are still clustered in the Southwest, however, with Nevada, California and Arizona leading the nation in foreclosure filings. Prices ran up rapidly in these areas during the bubble years as speculators snapped up single family homes and condos as investments.

Now one of every 54 homes in Nevada received some type of foreclosure filing during the quarter, more than any other state. Its largest city, Las Vegas, had one out of every 44 homes go into foreclosure.

Stockton, Calif. had the highest foreclosure rate out of any U.S. metro area, with one out of every 30 homes receiving a notice - nearly seven times higher than the national average. The Riverside/San Bernardino region had the second highest rate in the quarter, with one of every 38 homes in default.

Only two metro areas in the top 20 hardest hit were outside the sunbelt - Detroit, which ranked sixth in the nation with one in every 68 households in default, and Cleveland which saw one in every 105 homes go into foreclosure.

The news comes despite increased foreclosure prevention efforts by lenders and community organizations. Hope Now, the coalition of mortgage lenders, servicers investors and community groups, announced Monday that it helped over a half a million home owners avoid foreclosure during the first three months of the year.

And some local governments have stepped up their programs to help borrowers, according to RealtyTrac CEO James Saccacio.

"For example, in late March Philadelphia issued a temporary moratorium on all foreclosure auctions for April," he said. "The city has since adopted a program that will delay foreclosure proceedings on owner-occupied properties until the owners have met face-to-face with lenders to attempt to create a loan workout plan that would prevent foreclosure."

Additionally, lawmakers in Washington, D.C. are at work on several plans that would deliver foreclosure relief to distressed borrowers.

All of these foreclosure prevention efforts may not be able to stand up to the tsunami of foreclosures on the way. Sharga says that a record number of hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) - worth $362 billion - will reset in 2008.

These so-called "exploding ARMs" usually have low introductory interest rates that reset much higher after two or three years, and then re-adjust as often as every six months after that. Unless these loans can be reworked, many will fail.

"We expect to see another foreclosure peak in the late third or fourth quarter of the year," said Sharga, "because of the record number of resets coming." See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Hope Now workouts slow - Apr. 28, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The pace of housing rescue efforts slowed in the first quarter of the year, according to a new report, while the number of people losing their homes to foreclosure skyrocketed during the same period.

More than a half million at-risk home owners had their loans reworked during the first three months of the year, according to Hope Now, the coalition of mortgage lenders, servicers, investors and community advocates put together to help ease the foreclosure crisis. Nearly 1.4 million homeowners have gone through some sort of loan workout since July.

But the effort is not keeping pace with the rate of foreclosures.

"Unless you think the foreclosure problem [is bottoming out], the deceleration in workouts might be considered a disappointment," said economist Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute. He doesn't think that the mortgage crisis has hit its nadir yet.

"All the signs indicate that we're still headed for the bottom," said Bernstein, who is the author of Crunch: Why Do I Feel so Squeezed?. "You definitely want to see these workouts ramping up at a higher rate."

The administration-backed coalition says that through the end of March it helped 503,000 homeowners avoid foreclosure. That's up just 6% from the roughly the 473,000 borrowers it helped in the last quarter of 2007 - and a notable slowdown from the 20% increase in the number of people Hope Now helped in 2007's third quarter.

Meanwhile, the number of homes lost to bank repossessions during the first three months of 2008 totaled 205,207, up 36% from 151,403 a quarter earlier, according to Hope Now.

"Hope Now is helping some people," said Bernstein, "but not enough to hasten the [housing] correction along. It's a small piece of the puzzle."

A report last week by the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group concluded similarly that troubled borrowers aren't getting enough help. The coalition, formed last year by 11 state attorneys general and bank regulators, pointed out that although mortgage workouts had increased, the number of at-risk borrowers had risen just as quickly, if not faster. Its conclusion: seven out of 10 home owners who needed help were not getting it.

Better workouts

The good news is that a growing percentage of troubled borrowers are getting their mortgages modified, which makes mortgage payments more affordable by either reducing the loan's balance, lowering the interest rate or both. The rest get repayment plans, which add missed payments on to monthly bills, or tack them on to the end of the mortgage.

During the first quarter 36% of the borrowers who turned to Hope Now received mortgage modifications, up from 30% of borrowers who got modifications in the last quarter of 2007 and only 19% in the third quarter of last year.

"Hope Now is providing a way for homeowners to find real solutions so that they can stay in their homes," coalition director Faith Schwartz said in a prepared statement.

Bernstein conceded that Hope Now has helped a lot of people.

"It's great as far as it goes," he said. "It just doesn't go far enough." See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Number of vacant homes hits record high

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Census Bureau says the percentage of vacant homes in the U.S. has hit a record high in the first quarter of this year.

The report, released Monday, shows that 2.9% of U.S. homes - excluding rental properties - were vacant, compared with 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The West had the biggest gain in vacancy rates among homeowners, rising to 7% in the January-March period from 6.5% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Vacancy rates fell in the Midwest and South, but rose in the Northeast. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Good credit, bad loans - Apr. 28, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A good credit score doesn't mean you can't end up in foreclosure.

Many now troubled borrowers had excellent credit when they got their mortgages. But they took out loans that they couldn't afford to buy homes that were too expensive. Credit scores alone are no guarantee that borrowers will be able to keep up with their payments.

In September 2007, the most recent month for which data is available, more than 20% of subprime mortgage borrowers with scores of between 840 and 900 were 60 days or more delinquent, according to First American LoanPerformance. That default rate was roughly equal to that of borrowers with much lower scores, in the 540 to 599 range.

Beyond FICO

Take Trish Phillips, an office manager for an AM radio station in Florida, who bought her Ft. Lauderdale home in early 2007. She had a FICO score of 780 and a very stable work history, with 14 years at the same job. Less than a year later, however, she was in danger of losing her home.

"We used FICO scores as a huge determinant for [loan] performance, but it doesn't always work that way," said Richard Bitner, a former subprime mortgage broker and author of "Greed, Fraud & Ignorance: A Subprime Insider's Look at the Mortgage Collapse."

The problem, he explained, is that underwriters failed to take other risk factors into account, such as income, the down payment, and total household debts.

In the runup to the bubble, underwriting standards eroded just as much for people with high FICO scores as they did for people with bad credit, said Bitner.

For Phillips, the problem was the she ended up with an exotic loan called an option adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). With these loans, a borrower has the option of making minimum monthly payments that don't even cover the loan's interest. That unpaid interest is then added to the mortgage principal, which means that the loan grows bigger - and more expensive - each month.

"These loans required borrowers to have FICO scores of 700 or better to get them in the first place," said Phillips' foreclosure prevention counselor, Michael Sichenzia, of Dynamic Consulting Enterprises. "But they are defaulting at a high rate."

These loans were very profitable for brokers and lenders, who peddled them to borrowers aggressively. What's worse, loan officers used the option ARM's minimum payment to determine whether a borrower had sufficient income and assets to carry the loan, rather than the full monthly payments. That ensured the loans would get written - and nearly guaranteed that payments would become unmanageable.

Home buyers were also complicit, turning to option ARMs and other dicey loans to buy homes more expensive than they could really afford.

Trish Phillips had enough income to pay about $1,300, perhaps $1,400 a month for her home, which cost $279,900. The minimum payment on her option ARM was $1,276, but she was incurring interest of more than $2,000 a month. The difference of about $800 was added to her mortgage balance every month.

Option ARMs have what's called a negative amortization cap. If the unpaid interest accrues to as little 10% of the original principal (that varies from loan to loan), the loan reverts to a traditional mortgage, where the borrow must make full monthly payments that pay down the loan's principle.

According to Phillips, who was making the minimum payments, that meant her monthly bill would jump to $2,300 after just a couple of years and then to more than $3,000 a year after that She knew she couldn't afford it and went for help.

Phillips admits that she didn't clearly understand the loan terms before she closed on the house and says her mortgage broker didn't explain them. She had misgivings but, "I was afraid of losing the down payment," she said.

Home owners found themselves in this situation all over the nation - especially in pricey areas where many home buyers couldn't afford to get on the real estate merry-go-round without resorting to exotic loans, such as option ARMs or 2/28 hybrid ARMs. The latter feature two years of low, fixed, introductory interest rates. After that, they reset much higher and adjust every six months or so.

Just refinance

"When ARM rates were so low - 3.5%, 4% - many people, some with very high FICO scores, used them to buy houses they couldn't have afforded at 6%," said Steve Habetz, a mortgage broker in Connecticut. Home prices had run so far ahead of income that even well-paid borrowers had to stretch to buy homes.

"They anticipated home prices rising, or that they would get pay raises etc.," said Habetz. When that didn't happen, they were stuck in unaffordable loans.

"There were also a lot of unqualified loan originators and little government oversight," he said. "You had many mortgage brokers who took the path of least resistance - or the most profitable one. The elderly and minorities were often put in loans that didn't make any sense."

Borrowers were often told they could simply refinance before their mortgage rate reset using the home equity they'd accumulate as home prices rose. But of course, prices went down instead.

As for Phillips, she managed to get her loan modified, with Sichenzia's help. Her payment is now frozen for three years at $1,281 a month and her balance will not increase during that time. She hopes to refinance into a fixed rate loan before those three years are up.

And, since she succeeded in getting her mortgage modified before she even fell behind on her payments, her FICO score is still a healthy 775.  See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Thursday, April 24, 2008

Extreme home sales - Apr. 25, 2008

(Money Magazine) -- For nearly two years, Adriel and Lance Bush tried unsuccessfully to sell their 1925 home in West Palm Beach, Fla. First the couple went the traditional route: They hired a realtor (three of them, in fact) who gave them standard advice, like getting rid of all the clutter caused by their twin toddler boys. They also renovated their master bath and added granite counters to the kitchen. Still no takers, which wasn't surprising: Home sales in the West Palm Beach area have fallen by double digits.

Then Lance, 43, who had already accepted a new job in Tucson, relocated his family out West. That's when the Bushes got desperate. Between the mortgage, property taxes and insurance (including hurricane coverage) on their Florida home - along with their Arizona housing expenses - the couple was shelling out more than $7,000 a month.

Though they had already slashed the price on their 3,500-square-foot Mediterranean-style home several times - from $1.3 million to $795,000, which is about what they originally paid - they were willing to go even lower.

They also got creative. For instance, they decided to consider a lease-to-own deal, which makes it easier for cash-strapped buyers to take the plunge.

And they even went so far as to hire a feng shui expert, who for a fee of $250, added minor touches around the front entrance of their home to give it more "positive" energy. "I figured it wouldn't hurt anything, so why not try it?" says Adriel, 38, a professional organizer. A few weeks later, they found a buyer.

Of course, the Bushes aren't saying it was feng shui that triggered the eventual sale. But in today's market, where there are more homes for sale than corn in Kansas, one thing's becoming increasingly clear: You've got to be open to anything.

At last count, there were 4 million pre-owned houses for sale. That's up 14% from the start of last year. In cities and counties hardest hit by the real estate downturn, the numbers are even more dizzying. In Orlando, for example, there are now 26,000 homes up for sale. In 2004, "we were lucky if we had 3,000," says Lydia Pisano, former president of the city's local board of realtors.

In such a hypercompetitive market, you have to go way beyond what everyone else is doing - especially if you want to move your home quickly. Old standbys like slapping a fresh coat of paint on your clapboards or throwing in a complimentary plasma TV just won't cut it.

Instead, you have to rely on guerilla marketing tactics to get your home noticed. Maybe you start pitching your home on popular message boards. Certainly you'll need to seek out buyers rather than wait for them to find you. And you can no longer limit yourself to conventional sales agreements.

Here's what you have to do to move your home quickly in today's market.

Find your hook

When Kelly Andrews, 28 and just married, decided to sell her one-bedroom Atlanta condo in February, hers was one of about a dozen on sale in a 936-unit complex. Being in public relations, though, Andrews knew to play up the condo's one unique feature: its former owners.

So she called up a reporter for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and told a tale of how she and the two prior owners of unit No. 163 were single women who ended up finding their future husbands there. After the paper dubbed Andrews' unit "Cupid's Condo," she was flooded with calls from single women (and agents representing them).

One of those women offered to lease the unit for the precise amount of Andrews' mortgage payment. She thought this might work out even better than an outright sale, since leasing would allow her to build equity while waiting for the market to improve (Andrews hopes she can sell at a higher price).

The lesson: Highlight what makes your house special. Generic descriptions about "spacious bedrooms" or "modern appliances" are too common. "If I see one more listing that says 'sparkling pool,' I'm going to throw up," says Veronica Mullenix, a broker associate at Coldwell Banker United, Realtors in Katy, Texas.

Instead, "paint a lifestyle, a story," Mullenix says. And be as specific as you possibly can. Don't simply mention that your home is near local amenities. Let buyers know they can live within "a five-iron shot of the 15th tee."

Be a hunter, not a gatherer

In today's market, you can't wait for potential buyers to find you - you have to go to where they are. This means marketing your real estate in the virtual world.

The fact is, 84% of buyers search for homes online, more than double the percentage that did so in 2001. And looking for them online is even more important if you're in an area that appeals to out-of-town buyers. Patty Kelley, president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, says real estate in Sin City is being bought sight unseen through sites like helloWorld.com, which allows agents to do business over a live broadcast.

In addition to traditional spots like Realtor.com, check out alternative sites where buyers are flocking, like Craigslist.org, Realestate.yahoo.com, Zillow.com, Trulia.com and Base.google.com, Google's classified section.

Because many home seekers are getting to these sites through a search engine, it's critical to offer a comprehensive description of your home, so searches will find you through any number of listed features.

And don't just look for buyers - look for people who know potential prospects. John DuPriest, a real estate broker in Penryn, Calif., suggests a simple way to generate word of mouth offline: In addition to basic marketing fliers, make up business cards with a picture of your home, contact info and the price. Cards are easier to hand out - and be passed around - than fliers.

DuPriest noted that he recently passed out four or five cards to people who looked at one of the homes he was showing. One of them gave it to a member of his church, who then passed it along to another agent, who then showed the home to his clients. It wasn't exactly viral marketing, but the property eventually sold for $495,000 - just $4,000 shy of the home's list price.

Don't just sell - swap

If you're having trouble drumming up buyers through a traditional listing, consider swapping your home. Hey, it worked with lunches in the school cafeteria, why not in the real estate market?

The idea is simple. Instead of struggling to rope in reluctant buyers, look for like-minded sellers who'll need a new place to move into once they close their own deals. In the past year, free websites such as DomuSwap.com and GoSwap.org, along with paid services like OnlineHouseTrading.com ($19.95 to list), have cropped up to bring home swappers together. Keep in mind these services are still new. A recent search on DomuSwap showed a listing of 1,021 Florida homes but only 43 in New York.

Once you post details of your property - and what you're looking for in a new home - these sites will ping you back with a list of houses that come close to your wish list whose owners are interested in a property like yours. If you find something you like, just click on it and send the owner a message. Once a match is made, the transaction can move quickly. Within four days of posting their home on DomuSwap, Sherry Crosslin, 53, and James Ray, 63, of Hampton, Va. were contacted by a prospective buyer. And nine weeks later, the deal closed.

Keep in mind, you don't have to trade for equivalent value. While it's called a swap, it's really two separate transactions, where both trading partners take out mortgages based on the price they agree to pay.

So if you're an empty-nester who wants to downsize - and pocket some of the equity you've built in your home - you might choose to swap with a younger couple with a growing family.

Lock in a future buyer now

With banks tightening lending standards, your problem might not be finding an interested buyer; it could be attracting a buyer with the means to purchase your home. One option is to give the buyer time to improve his credit or save for a bigger down payment through a lease-to-own contract.

Here's how it works: You agree to rent the property to the interested buyer. At the end of the lease, which normally lasts 18 months or less, the buyer has an option to purchase at an agreed-upon price. With the help of an attorney, you can draft these contracts however you see fit. Some homeowners, for example, charge a nonrefundable "option fee," as much as 2% of the home's value. This fee, which is typically applied to the down payment if the renter buys, also serves as a penalty if he decides against purchasing.

For the Bushes of West Palm Beach, the lease-to-own option they offered their prospective buyers helped seal their deal. That couple, who showed up shortly after the Bushes experimented with feng shui, needed time to clean up their credit report. Today their rent covers the Bushes' mortgage, insurance and property taxes - and they're expected to buy in July.

"It's a huge relief," says Adriel. "We can finally move on." She doesn't know if the lease-to-own offer turned out to be more crucial than feng shui. All she knows is that she and Lance were able to get out of the home and go on with their lives in one of the most difficult markets in recent history. Now that's positive energy.

Are you on track for an early retirement? Tell us why and send us your photos and videos. Include your financial details and your family could be profiled in a future column of our Millionaire in the Making series.  See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Bush administration opposes housing package - Apr. 24, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A top housing official said Thursday that the Bush administration "strongly opposes" a Democratic housing rescue package, calling it a bailout that would expose taxpayers to excessive risk.

Deputy Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Roy A. Bernardi also indicated that President Bush would veto a bill sending $15 billion to states for the purchase and rehabilitation of foreclosed properties.

The comments, in separate letters to lawmakers, were the most forceful rejection yet by the Bush administration of Democrats' housing aid plans. And they were the clearest indication to date that the White House intends to put up a vigorous fight against a bill to let the Federal Housing Administration take on as much as $300 billion in new mortgages for financially strapped homeowners.

They came as the House Financial Services Committee began work on the bill by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the panel chairman. It would substantially relax the FHA's standards to reach struggling borrowers who otherwise would be considered ineligible for a government-backed mortgage.

Homeowners would have to show they could make payments on a refinanced mortgage, and lenders would have to agree to take hefty losses on the existing loans.

"We're not talking here about murderers or muggers or arsonists. We're talking about people whose misdeeds were to try too hard to find housing for their family," Frank said. "What we hope to do today is to diminish the cascade of foreclosures."

The Bush administration has previously questioned the scope and structure of the plan, although it backs the central concept: adjusting FHA's rules so more homeowners can refinance into government-backed loans.

An administration program, called FHASecure, made similar changes, but it is limited to borrowers who have good credit and histories of making their payments on time. It also doesn't require lenders to accept losses on existing mortgages.

Doing so, Bernardi wrote, would "significantly limit lender participation."

Frank has been working to draw Republican support for his plan, which he says has a good chance of becoming law this year.

Republican resistance. But first, Democrats will have to deal with strong GOP philosophical objections to any measure that inserts the government into the housing maelstrom - especially one that could help people who are victims of their own irresponsible decisions.

"It will unfairly benefit a few homeowners and many investors and speculators at the expense of millions of careful borrowers and renters," said Rep. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala. "The message that we risk sending to financial institutions and individuals is that when they willingly take on excessive and ill-advised risk, the government will ride to their rescue."

The panel rejected, 34-23, a Republican alternative that included steps to protect consumers from fraudulent or unscrupulous lending practices, an overhaul of the FHA, and stiffer regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored mortgage guarantors and financiers. Many of its elements have already passed the House by wide bipartisan margins and are stalled in the Senate.

Frank called the measure "a pale imitation" of what the House has already done to head off a deeper housing crisis.

The committee made a number of minor changes to Frank's bill, which is to come to a final panel vote next week.

The most significant change, offered by Rep. Melissa Bean, D-Ill., beefed up to 50% the share of profits homeowners would have to share with the FHA if they refinanced again or sold their property.

House leaders plan votes the week of May 5 on a broad housing package including Frank's FHA plan and the measure - approved by the committee Wednesday - to send loans and grants to states for buying and fixing up foreclosed properties.

Bernardi called the $15 billion fund "a costly bailout for lenders and speculators" that could lead to even more foreclosures. He noted that Bush's advisers had recommended he veto a similar bill earlier this year. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

The look for less: kitchen and bath bargains - Rock solid (1) - CNNMoney.com

Most times you get what you pay for, but sometimes you luck out. Here are a few true deals, with features of higher-end products for less money.

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Rates on 30-year mortgages top 6% - Apr. 24, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Rates on 30-year mortgages topped 6% for the first time in six weeks as financial markets grew more worried about rising inflation pressures.

Freddie Mac (FRE, Fortune 500), the mortgage company, reported Thursday that 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.03% this week after three straight weeks at 5.88%. Rates on 30-year mortgages were last above 6% the week of March 16 when they averaged 6.13%.

"Average rates on mortgages increased across the board this last week as the most recent economic data raised inflationary concerns in the capital markets," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist.

Fueling those concerns was a bigger-than-expected 1.1% jump in wholesale prices and a renewed surge in energy costs, which have pushed gasoline and crude oil prices to record levels.

Eyes on the Fed. The Federal Reserve has been aggressively cutting interest rates to combat an economic slowdown that many economists believe has turned into a recession. However, analysts said that the Fed is likely to scale back its rate cuts to a quarter-point move at next week's meeting as a way of signaling that it is also concerned about the threat of inflation.

Bill Hampel, chief economist for the Credit Union National Association, said while interest rates rose this week they still remain at historically favorable levels. He said that the bigger problem for the housing industry at the moment is the fact that many lenders have tightened up on credit standards in reaction to rising mortgage defaults, making it harder for prospective buyers to qualify for loans.

Rates on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, a popular choice for refinancing, rose this week to 5.62%, up from 5.40% last week.

Five-year adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 5.68%, up from 5.48% last week. One-year adjustable-rate mortgages rose to 5.28% compared with 5.10% last week.

The mortgage rates do not include add-on fees known as points. For 30-year and 15-year mortgages, the nationwide average fee was 0.3 point while the average fee was 0.5 point for five-year and one-year mortgages.

A year ago, rates on 30-year mortgages stood at 6.16%, 15-year mortgage rates averaged 5.87%, five-year adjustable-rate mortgages were 5.88% and one-year adjustable-rate mortgages were at 5.43%. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Home builders see a recovery in 2009 - Apr. 24, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The damaged housing and home construction markets will continue to take a beating at least through the end of the year, according to economists who spoke Thursday at a forecast conference sponsored by the National Association of Home Builders.

The economists said the deterioration of the housing market helped the U.S. economy slip into a recession that will continue through June. They said high oil prices will continue to hamper consumer spending, and the ongoing credit crisis will make home financing difficult, stalling a housing recovery until at least 2009.

Plummeting home prices negatively affect homeowners' wealth, and some mortgage borrowers have found that the value of their homes has fallen below the price of their mortgages, sending some homeowners into foreclosure. One economist forecast that before all is said and done, the housing crunch will have cost Americans $400 billion in lost home value.

"All this downward momentum in home prices is really screwing up the financial markets," said NAHB chief economist David Seiders, adding, "Housing production will continue to drag on the economy until the first quarter of 2009."

Though the tax rebates from the government's economic stimulus package are expected to trigger a rise in consumer spending and confidence, any bounceback in housing is forecast to be slow - a bad sign for the overall economy.

"After the stimulus checks take their effect, the economy will will need something else to support it in the first quarter of 2009, or else the economy is in trouble," said Seiders.

The conference was held in Washington.

Another trade group, the National Association of Realtors, reported Tuesday that sales by homeowners fell 2% in March despite home prices falling 7.7% in March and 8.2% in February - the largest year-over-year price drop on record. The median home price in the United States has tumbled 12.8% since the record high reached in July 2006, and existing home sales have been in a virtual free-fall since July 2007.

But the economists said the housing market is nearing its bottom, with existing home sales bottoming out toward the end of 2008 and sales of new single-family houses picking up perhaps as early as the second half of 2008.

"We're not out of the woods yet, and recovery will be very tepid," said Global Insight economist Nariman Behravesh, who predicted net home sales will enter "small positive territory" in the second half of 2008.

Though Behravesh forecast continued recovery throughout 2009 and 2010, he said there is legitimate concern that home prices could again slip in the first quarter of 2009 after the effect of the stimulus package wears off.

A homebuilders' recovery may take a bit longer than the real estate market's comeback, according to the economists.

"The explosion of single-family building permits in 2003 to 2005 produced an unsustainable, unprecedented run-up in the building economy," said Seiders.

But when the housing market crashed, new housing permits "fell off a cliff," according to Seiders, returning to levels not seen since the 1991 recession. That left a huge glut of unoccupied new homes on the market without many potential buyers.

According to the National Association of Realtors report released Tuesday, there were 4.1 million available for sale, representing nearly a 9.9 month supply. Such a high inventory competes directly with builders, as they have to curtail construction projects on new homes until supply and demand levels are more balanced.

But economists remained optimistic that a turnaround for builders would come in 2009.

"The housing market will not regain any balance until sales resume," said JPMorgan Chase economist Jim Glassman. "But this may be the worst of it."  See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

City's plan to relocate residents meets resistance - Apr. 24, 2008

YOUNGSTOWN, Ohio (CNNMoney.com) -- When the city of Youngstown, Ohio, proposed incentives to move people out of declining neighborhoods, it sounded like a good idea - in theory.

The city hoped to lure holdouts living on nearly empty blocks and relocate them to more lively areas, as part of its plan to remake itself in the wake of the steel industry's departure and the foreclosure crisis. It's already cleared some lots for things like playgrounds.

Now Youngstown wants to close entire streets and bulldoze abandoned properties so it can shut down city services like street lighting, police patrols and garbage pick-ups that it can no longer afford to maintain.

To do this on a large scale, the city needs to get about 100 residents to relocate. Each is eligible for $50,000 in incentives - plenty, in this town, to buy a new home and move. The hitch: Youngstowners don't seem to want to leave their homes, no matter how blighted or abandoned the neighborhood may be.

"I'm East Side born and East Side bred and when I die, I'll be East Side dead," said Rufus Hudson, a director of work force development at Youngstown State University. "We love our side of town. The same people who watched me grow are watching my children grow."

Only one of the half dozen residents who have been contacted by the program since June agreed to relocate, according to Bill D'Avignon, the city's community development director. And in interviews with CNNMoney.com, another seven residents vowed that they too would stay on their deserted blocks.

The woman who did agree to move lived on a block filled with burned out homes, and a street that could easily be closed without disturbing traffic patterns. But she fell ill, and the move is now on hold.

D'Avignon, who has been surprised by the resistance, said the city may have to up the ante to overcome the resistance, which seems to stem, in part, from community loyalty.

South Side story

Marie Rodriguez lives on the city's gritty South Side, next to a big empty lot on her right and vacant houses behind her. "That bothers me a little," she admitted.

There are only eight occupied homes left on her street, but she still likes living there. "It's pretty good, nice and quiet," said the retired cook. "I wouldn't move even if I was the last one on the block."

People are understandably attached to homes that they've cared for, and which hold fond memories.

"I put a lot of money in the house, and I raised seven kids here," said Rodriguez.

Another South Sider, Anna Maria Gay, has lived in Youngstown for 47 years and also won't be persuaded to move from her block. "I like the people here; I would never move away," she said. "It's very homey, not high class but not quaint either."

Youngstown's East Side was slated for development back in the 1950's, when the city's population was about 200,000.

But the neighborhood withered as Youngstown's population dwindled to about 80,000. Many of the houses that were built have been demolished, roads have gone un-repaired and others have been closed. Large wooded areas and fields - and even a 10-acre farm - lie within a 10-minute drive of downtown.

Arlette Gatewood, an 80-year-old retired steelworker and union official, has lived on the East Side since its heyday, and he too intends to stay in his home.

"Turning these mostly empty blocks into green spaces would be better for the neighborhood and cheaper for the city," he said. "But it's not my intention to ever move."

The area has too many memories for him to give up.

"I worked in the steel mills for 32 years, five months and 28 days," said Gatewood. "I came up at a time, graduating from high school in 1947, when the opportunities for young black men were limited."

But the mills were hiring. "We made good money," he said. "The work was hard; it was dirty."

Going home to the East Side after a tough day was pleasant, though. He remembers beer gardens, grocery stores and other retailers. These are gone. Now Youngstowners drive to the suburbs to shop.

Patient city planners

The desire to stay put leads to some odd juxtapositions.

Take Meadow Street, which is near downtown. It's just a block long and the southern half of it will soon close when Fireline Inc., a ceramic molding manufacturer, takes possession. The company already owns most of the block.

But there's one holdout - a modest, wood-frame house a third of the way down the street. The Fireline plant, which employs 102 people, nearly surrounds this sliver of land where Nathaniel and Lulu Byrd live.

The company would like to take over the entire street, but for the Byrds.

According to Fireline, the couple has no intention of moving. "We've offered [the Byrd's] ten times their home's valuation," said Gloria Jones, who founded the company with her husband.

But Nathaniel Byrd's mother gave him this house as a wedding gift. "They have a great deal of affection for the house," said Jones. "They want to stay."

So far city planners have been patient. Relocations are strictly voluntary, and the city intends to keep it that way - there are no plans to invoke eminent domain.

Meanwhile, the city has crafted plans for over 170 neighborhoods. In the Idora Park area, for example, near where an amusement park once stood, there are just a few occupied houses where the "entire swath of land should be open greenery," said community development director D'Avignon.

To make that happen, city planners may sweeten the deal - possibly offering to pay off small mortgage balances of $20,00 or $30,000.

They may have to, if they want any Youngstowners to move. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Nine ways to enhance a home's curb appeal - Apr. 24, 2008

(Money Magazine) -- Just as every mother believes her son is a handsome devil, we homeowners tend to see the best in our houses - or at least we become comfortably familiar with the way they look.

But let's face it, to the objective eye, not every man is George Clooney and not every house is a Frank Lloyd Wright masterpiece. There are a lot of drab, even downright gloomy facades out there - especially among homes built after World War II, when many builders abandoned traditional architectural styling to streamline costs and mass-produce housing.

Thankfully, the cosmetic surgery required to put a beautiful face on your home won't hurt a bit. It doesn't even require a big-ticket construction job. "Creating curb appeal isn't about trying to transform the house from, say, a plain-Jane ranch into a grand Victorian," says Charlotte, Vt. architect Ted Montgomery. "Just changing one or two little details is all it takes."

You can find your inspiration by looking at similar houses in the neighborhood - or by hiring an architect to offer suggestions ($300 to $500) and maybe sketch a plan (add $300 to $500). You'll boost your home pride, endear yourself to the neighbors and generate a lot more interest from buyers someday when your house goes on the market.

Subtract flaws

Assuming the house and yard are already well maintained, job one is to get rid of unsightly blemishes left by a penny-pinching builder or the misguided remodeling efforts of previous owners.

Replace the garage doors. The most prominent facial feature of many homes is a pair of big garage doors - which all too often are flat, lackluster slabs of steel or vinyl. Trade them for more visually appealing doors with moldings, windows or an old-fashioned carriage-house look ($2,000 to $5,000 a door, including labor). See designerdoors.com and clopaydoor.com for examples.

Remove siding. Sometimes ugliness is only skin-deep. "Peek under dreary aluminum, vinyl or asbestos siding and you may find well-preserved wood clapboards hiding underneath," says Asheville, N.C. architect Jane Mathews. If so, remove the siding, repair the old wood and give the house an attractive paint job ($10,000 to $20,000). If not, you could paint the siding or replace it with fiber cement siding (see image), a no-maintenance product that looks like real wood ($15,000 to $25,000).

Lose the funky railings. Swap out bad porch or stoop railings - such as black iron bars and chunky pressure-treated decking components - for visually interesting banisters and spindles that are worthy of their prominent placement at the front of the house ($1,000 to $3,000).

Add character

Like a dimple or a cleft chin, the addition of an interesting architectural element can give your house some distinctiveness.

Install a salvaged door. The typical postwar front door is decidedly dull, but the entry should be the focal point of your house, says Corvallis, Ore. architect Lori Stephens. For interesting replacements, troll an architectural salvage yard (the directory at buildingreuse.org can help you locate one). Consider a recycled mission-style oak door, a six-panel colonial with blown-glass windows, or arch-top French doors ($200 to $800; more if you're converting to an arch top).

Add moldings. Many newer homes lack exterior trim; the siding just butts up against the windows and doors. A contractor can give the house a more sophisticated, traditional look by cutting back that siding and slipping in wide, flat moldings around the openings and possibly at the corners of the house and between its stories ($3,000 to $4,000). Consider using a synthetic product like cellular PVC for your moldings, which looks like wood but will never rot.

Enhance the roof. A straight, un-adorned roofline makes a house look about as interesting as a shipping container. So consider adding one or more windowed dormers (gabled peaks) or extending the eaves (the roof overhang) a few feet beyond the front of the house with detailed moldings on the under-side ($2,500 to $6,000 per dormer or eave extension). This is major surgery though; do not attempt it without first getting an architect's input.

Multiply the effect

Invasive procedures aren't always necessary. Just adding the right accents can transform your home's outer look - not unlike a pair of stylish new specs or a good haircut.

Replace light fixtures and hardware. Lose generic shiny brass or black house numbers, mailbox and porch lights (especially bare-bulb fixtures) and substitute something unique and substantial, perhaps made of antiqued copper, bronze or brushed nickel ($20 to $75 each). For ideas, see rejuvenation.com and restorationhardware.com.

Plan for a nonstop flower show. Most of the flowers in your yard probably bloom in the late spring, which makes for a beautiful May - or whenever the big show happens in your climate - but leaves you with a bland yard for the other 10 or 11 months of the year. A local nursery can help you choose and plant additional bulbs, shrubs and trees with different bloom times (as well as plants with colorful autumn foliage and winter berries), so there'll always be something performing in the yard ($50 to $250 a shrub, $500 to $1,500 a tree).

Add color. A paint job ($2,000 to $10,000) in pleasing hues can make any structure appealing. "But don't choose a bright, high-contrast color scheme - that only exaggerates a house's flaws," Montgomery warns.

For subtler suggestions, check out the book "House Colors" by Susan Hershman ($23 at Amazon.com) or go for the colors of nature - muted greens, deep reds or pale yellows - and keep the body and trim close in color. That will give your home a friendly, peaceful look rather than making it say, "Hey, look at me." Sort of like an average-looking guy choosing a simple charcoal suit instead of a flashy powder blue one that only a Hollywood star could pull off.  See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

House panel approves $15 billion housing bill - Apr. 23, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democrats pushed a $15 billion housing bill through a House committee Wednesday over the objections of Republicans who called it a government bailout.

The measure would send federal loans and grants to cities and counties hit hardest by the housing crisis so they could buy and fix up foreclosed properties. It passed the Financial Services Committee 38-26, mostly along party lines.

Democrats said it would prevent blight in distressed neighborhoods, but the Bush administration and Republicans view it as a government giveaway for lenders and speculators that could lead to even more foreclosures.

The plan is designed to complement a broader housing overhaul package whose centerpiece would let hundreds of thousands of struggling homeowners refinance into more affordable, government-insured loans. That bill is expected to get a committee vote next week, and both measures are slated to move through the House the week after.

The bill approved Wednesday would provide $15 billion - half in loans and half in grants - to states with high foreclosure rates. Money would go to the most populous cities and counties based on their foreclosure rates, and to smaller towns that are severely affected. Priority would be given to helping low- and middle-income neighborhoods and targeted to aiding the poorest people and those who have already lost their homes to foreclosure.

"There is such a pressing need for the economic stimulus that would be provided" by the bill, said Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., its sponsor. "These abandoned and foreclosed properties drag down the value of the homes still occupied by working families."

Republicans said the measure was too costly and wouldn't help homeowners.

"The principal beneficiaries of this type of plan would be private lenders who now own the vacant and foreclosed properties," said Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va.

It "may only serve to prolong our current housing problems," she added.

The measure could become ensnared in a broader partisan dispute over whether to provide another economic rescue package on the heels of the tax rebate plan President Bush signed in February. Democrats contend a "second stimulus" - including such items as housing assistance, a jobless benefits extension, and food and heating aid for the poor - is needed. But Bush and congressional Republicans are loath to embrace more spending.

Only three Republicans - two from Ohio, stricken with one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country - crossed party lines to back the plan.

The rest of the housing package, on the other hand, could draw more Republican support.

Its main element is a proposal by Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., the House Financial Services Committee chairman, to expand the Federal Housing Administration to help financially strapped homeowners who otherwise wouldn't qualify for government-backed loans refinance into cheaper fixed-rate mortgages.

Under the plan, the FHA would take on up to $300 billion in new mortgages for financially strapped borrowers who could show they could afford a new mortgage. Lenders would first have to agree to take substantial losses on the existing loans so the homeowners could refinance.

The Financial Services panel also approved a bill Wednesday designed to encourage lenders to help struggling homeowners transition into more affordable mortgages.

The bipartisan measure by Reps. Michael N. Castle, R-Del., and Paul E. Kanjorski, D-Pa., would shield mortgage holders from legal liability if they took a loss to allow a borrower to refinance. It's designed to address a fear among those who bundle mortgages into securities that investors will sue them if they modify the loans.

That bill is also expected to move through the House the week of May 5. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Bailout backlash - Apr. 23, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Why should American taxpayers have to pay to bailout reckless lenders and borrowers?

The website Angryrenter.com, launched just last week, has a vitiation demanding that Congress not pass any bailout programs that reward risky borrowing and lending. To wit: "Let the free market sort it out!"

The petition is gathering 40 to 50 signatures per hour, according to spokesman Adam Brandon, who adds that the site is already getting 15,000 visitors a day.

"There's a huge segment of the country saying, 'We don't want our money used for a bailout,'" said Brandon.

AngryRenter.com is backed by FreedomWorks, the conservative, free-market Washington-based lobbying group run by former House majority leader Dick Armey.

"A third of the American public rents," Brandon pointed out. "They're saying 'I've been saving for a mortgage for years. I could have jumped in on a subprime loan too. Now I'm going to have to pay for a government bailout."

'We wanted to buy too'

Many CNNMoney.com readers agree, expressing outrage at the idea of seeing their taxes used to keep people in homes they never should have purchased.

"We are both working professionals who would have liked to buy," said Matthew Haas, a community development organizer who moved to Los Angeles with his wife in 2003. They opted not to pay bubble prices, and are still renting despite ample income.

"Now we have hit [the alternative minimum tax] and are finding out our tax dollars are going to bail out others." "Where is value, morally, as a country?" he said. "Is it taking taxpayer money and applying it to people who should never have bought, people who were flippers?"

Many people would prefer the government do nothing at all to prop up the housing market -- especially those hoping to buy in a more affordable market.

Patrick Killelea has been blogging about the housing bubble at Patrick.net for four years from San Francisco, where it takes a not-so-small fortune to buy.

"Bailouts reward bad behavior. I've been diligently saving, denying myself lots of things so I can afford to buy, yet the government is saying we have to keep all these people in their homes," said the Web site programmer and author. "Well, wait a minute! Why can't I spend more than I can afford and have the government bail me out."

Fat profits

Nationalbubble.com is another newly minted site devoted to the bailout backlash. "I just got really angry," said blogger Morgan Ward Doran, an L.A.-based attorney who isn't professional involved with the housing industry. "Everyone I hear from is against the bailouts."

Doran argues that lenders, brokers and home builders all made huge profits by overbuilding houses pushing through poorly underwriten loans, and now they want taxpayers to cushion their fall.

Indeed, there is a provision in the Senate bailout bill that would give extensive tax breaks to home builders, which has some people especially incensed.

The Laborers International Union of North America calculated recently that many of the largest builders, such as Pulte homes (PHM, Fortune 500) and Lennar Corp. (LEN, Fortune 500), could receive many hundreds of millions of dollars in tax rebates.

"The government thinks it should help the people who cheated and robbed us," writes CNNMoney.com reader Jordan Fogal of Houston.

Most people who are against bailouts trust the market more than the government.

The fastest way to return to normalcy is to let the market work, according to Angryrenter.com's Adam Brandon. He acknowledges that the impact on some homeowners will be devastating, but that things will get even more painful if we don't let the free market work its magic.

"I feel terrible for people losing their homes," said Brandon, "but the sooner we let the market sort this out, the sooner we can get back to growth. When the government gets involved, it can delay the inevitable." See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Mortgage application volume falls, MBA says - Apr. 23, 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Mortgage application volume fell 14.2% during the week ending April 18, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly application survey.

The MBA's application index fell to 637.6 from 743.4 the previous week.

Refinance volume fell 20.2%, while purchase volume declined 6.4%. Refinance applications accounted for 49.2% of total applications compared with 53.5% a week earlier.

The index peaked at 1,856.7 during the week ending May 30, 2003, at the height of the housing boom.

An index value of 100 is equal to the application volume on March 16, 1990, the first week the MBA tracked application volume. A reading of 637.6 means mortgage application activity is 6.376 times higher than it was when the MBA began tracking the data.

The survey provides a snapshot of mortgage lending activity among mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. It covers about 50% of all residential retail mortgage originations each week.

Application volume fell as interest rates for fixed-rate loans moved higher.

The average interest rate for traditional, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.04% from 5.74% the previous week. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, often a popular option for refinancing a loan, increased to 5.6% from 5.27%.

The rate for one-year adjustable-rate mortgages fell to 6.93% from 7.02% the previous week. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Monday, April 21, 2008

Report: No help yet for most subprime borrowers - Apr. 22, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Seven out of 10 seriously delinquent subprime mortgage borrowers are still not getting the help they need to keep their homes.

That's according to a report released Tuesday by the State Foreclosure Prevention Working Group, a coalition formed by eleven state attorneys general and the Conference of Bank Supervisors in the summer of 2007 to work with loan servicers to prevent unnecessary foreclosures.

"Our collaborative efforts to date have failed to prevent a large number of unnecessary foreclosures," said North Carolina Deputy Commissioner of Banks Mark Pearce. "We need to find solutions that fit the size of the problem we are facing."

The report, which surveyed lender efforts and programs like Hope Now, found that the number of borrowers getting help each month has increased from about 210,000 in October to nearly 261,000 in January. But because the total number of troubled borrowers is also growing so quickly, from 820,000 seriously delinquent loans last fall to over 1 million at the start of the year, the proportion of mortgage rescues has remained essentially unchanged.

"We're still way behind," said Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who helped form the coalition.

Nearly a quarter of all subprime loans are in delinquency. About 300,000 subprime borrowers are now in some stage of foreclosure, up 8% since last October.

Hard to handle

Mortgage servicers are overwhelmed, unable to cope with the sheer numbers of delinquent loans, according to the report. The fact that about two-thirds of all mortgage modification efforts are not completed by the following month is evidence that servicers are falling behind.

"We're finding the servicing system can't manage and re-underwrite millions of loans," Pearce said at a press conference announcing the results. "The case-by-case approach [they're using now] was not designed to handle the numbers of loans they're dealing with."

Delinquent loans headed for foreclosure are "clogging up" the system, slowing the pace of modification efforts and possibly adding to the number of vacant homes in many communities. The report warned that could drive down home prices even more.

There was some good news: More troubled borrowers are getting comprehensive, long-term mortgage modifications. These workouts change the the loan terms, lowering the interest rate, the balance or both to make payments more affordable.

The Working Group also made two recommendations to improve the rate of mortgage modifications: Slow down the foreclosure process to give servicers more time to find solutions for individual borrowers, and take a more systematic approach to modifying loans. That would eliminate some of the intensive case-by-case counseling that is now involved.

Additionally, the coalition came out in support of efforts to allow bankruptcy judges to reduce mortgage balances to reflect current market values, as well as expanding the role of the Federal Housing Authority in refinancing subprime loans.

Subprime loan performance still subpar

The performance of subprime loans has continued to deteriorate, with many of the loans completed in 2006 and 2007 already in default.

For example, 28.5% of subprime adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) that won't reset until Spring, 2009 are already delinquent. About 21% of these same loans were delinquent in October.

The report concluded that "very weak underwriting and mortgage origination fraud, and not simply payment resets," are what's driving subprime loan defaults.  See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Mortgage rescue plan could hurt housing more than it helps - Apr. 22, 2008

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Congress appears eager to help more than a million homeowners facing foreclosure, but a proposal aimed at fixing the battered housing market could instead end up as the latest blow to a recovery.

An ambitious plan proposed by Rep. Barney Frank and Sen. Chris Dodd calls for up to $300 billion in loan guarantees from the Federal Housing Administration to refinance loans that homeowners can't afford as long as the original lender reduces the principal on the loan to 85% of the home's current market value.

Backers say borrowers would get out from under unworkable debt and original lenders would get back more than they would foreclosing. It would also prevent 1.5 million foreclosures and halt home-price declines since it would keep more houses from flooding an already battered market.

Critics, including some in Congress, say the rescue plan rewards reckless behavior and transfers risk to homeowners and lenders who were responsible during the housing boom.

But some experts think this is the wrong solution for purely financial reasons.

The plan won't work

Robert Shiller, a Yale economist who has long argued there was a bubble in home prices, thinks the plan will do little to stop the slide in housing prices.

The runup earlier this decade, fed by low interest rates from the Federal Reserve and lax underwriting standards by lenders, created a bubble that hasn't yet completely deflated.

Shiller notes that prices shot up 85% when adjusted for inflation from 1997 through mid-2006 and have fallen only about 15% since then.

Shiller adds that when compared to measures such as rents and household income, housing prices are still out of equilibrium

"I'm not sure we can achieve continuing high home prices," he said.

If he's right, more borrowers may find themselves owing more than their house is worth, which could add to the number of foreclosures and homes on the market.

In addition, the FHA would be left with a large portfolio of loans backed by houses worth less than the mortgage. In other words, instead of banks facing foreclosure risk, the government (and hence taxpayers) would be on the hook for billions of dollars in bad loans.

And the FHA is already strapped. The agency's estimated losses are already soaring and the FHA has been warning Congress it might no longer be able to count on premiums paid by borrowers to cover its losses.

Housing prices should be falling

Not everyone agrees with Shiller. Some think the Dodd-Frank plan will at least slow the decline in home prices. Problem is, that could ultimately be bad news for the economy too. That's because some think that, as painful as it may be, the best way to fix the housing crisis is for the free market to run its course.

After all, lower home prices might actually help stimulate demand again.

"What the market is in the process of doing is bringing home prices back to where they should be by any traditional measure," said Barry Ritholtz, CEO and director of equity research Fusion IQ. "If home prices don't go down, it means newlyweds can't go out and find a home they can afford."

The Bush administration seemed to be worried about just this kind of impact when the Dodd-Frank bill was first proposed.

"We must work to limit the impact of the housing downturn on the real economy without impeding the completion of the necessary housing correction," said Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in a speech last month.

And Keith Hembre, chief economist of First American Funds, also is concerned that other efforts by the government to respond to problems in housing, including the Federal Reserve's recent move to accept mortgage-backed securities and collateral from lenders, will create more problems than they solve.

"Fixing the prices of one asset will distort the price of others," he said, adding that the Fed's actions could lead to inflation in other parts of the economy, as the Fed's efforts to inject money into the troubled credit markets could lead to an even weaker dollar and higher commodity prices, which would feed price pressures down the road.

There should be more renters

William Wheaton, a professor with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Center for Real Estate, says one quiet shift that occurred during the housing boom was that more homes and apartments went from being rental units to being owner-occupied.

Wheaton argues many of the homeowners now facing foreclosure could be better off renting the same home at current market prices, rather than trying to refinance the mortgage.

He adds that if there isn't a significant increase in the supply of homes for rent, rents will rise, which will just make things more difficult for those who do lose their homes.

For this reason, he thinks the government would be better off giving tax assistance to companies willing to buy foreclosed properties and then rent them to the current occupants.

"That could be just as good if not better for housing market, because it would also keep the foreclosed homes off the market, and limit the damage to house prices while also preventing rents from soaring," he said.

But Wheaton admits that such a move probably has little political support in Congress because politicians want to be seen as doing what they can to promote and preserve home ownership, even if people better off paying less in rent for a comparable home than they're now paying to own a home.

"It's very popular to say you're in favor of home ownership, even if it doesn't make any economic sense," he said. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

Sunday, April 20, 2008

A subprime 'perp walk' - Apr. 21, 2008

(Money Magazine) -- Admit it. you want to see some justice handed out on Wall Street. Thanks to the Great Mortgage Panic of 2008, your home value is tumbling, credit is harder to get and the job market may turn a lot tougher. And let's not even talk about your 401(k) balance.

It's natural to be angry when forces beyond your control mess with your life. So we're looking for villains. Some people - especially Wall Street people - blame feckless, house-hungry borrowers. Then there were regulators who didn't bother to regulate. But the heart of the matter is that Wall Street went nuts. Again.

Throwing money at borrowers

The banks dreamed up ever more creative ways to give anybody a loan. They pushed mortgages with optional payments and "liar loans" that required little proof of income. All this inflated home prices, which nudged even sane people into bigger, variable-rate loans just to land a house.

Those mortgages were then bundled into investment securities, jumbled up with other kinds of debt and chopped into pieces again to be bought up by institutional investors hungry for yield. And like flippers of Miami condos, many borrowed to get in on the action.

Of course, such manias are not unusual. But this is different from, say, the Internet bubble because the financial industry needs our help (taxpayers' help, that is). As homeowners miss payments, overexposed Wall Streeters are having a crisis of confidence.

The Fed has already lent out public money, based on stinky collateral, to stop investment bank Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500) from collapsing. Congress may even have the government guarantee mortgages, taking on the risk if they turn bad. It's not fair, but it beats the possible alternative: a freeze-up of the financial system.

Still, it's important that people pay for dumb decisions. Firms that get help should have to take steep losses. They could even, as former labor secretary Robert Reich suggests, hand some equity to the government so taxpayers profit from a recovery. (It happened in the 2001 airline bailout.)

But punishing companies isn't as satisfying as punishing people. How do you ensure that the decision makers, who pocketed stratospheric sums when the bets were paying off, feel pain?

First let's set loose the lawyers

Count on some big lawsuits and perhaps even prosecutions. (All it may take, says Chapman University law professor Kurt Eggert, is an e-mail in which some banker or trader or analyst admits, "Dudes, this stuff is garbage....")

When companies get rescued, the government should demand transparency in return so we know who did what and how. Forcing firms into the bankruptcy process, for example, would let in sunlight, says Temple University bankruptcy expert Jonathan Lipson.

Take it out of executives' salaries

The main problem here isn't fraud, just imprudence. But a CEO who hurts his shareholders badly enough should feel a sharp penalty. That's hardly standard operating procedure in corporate America: Last year Citigroup's (C, Fortune 500) Charles Prince retired with a $10 million cash bonus even as investors reeled from mortgage losses.

"We're locking the barn door after the horse, and its bank account, has disappeared," quips Nell Minow of the Corporate Library, which tracks executive pay. Minow would like to see firms promise to take back past compensation in some cases. To get there, lawmakers could give shareholders more real power in proxy voting to make the boards who set pay accountable.

Moving beyond comeuppance, we have to rein in lenders

Smart regulation would make costs and pitfalls obvious to borrowers - not only in mortgages but in credit cards. (Iffy plastic debt is sloshing around Wall Street too.) Perhaps lenders should have to illustrate how far underwater a loan would go if home prices fell 10%.

Harvard Law's Elizabeth Warren has proposed creating a "financial product safety commission" that could declare certain loans too dangerous to market at all. Yes, more rules would make credit flow a little less easily. Does anyone still think that's the worst problem we could have? See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

When a HELOC freezes over - Apr. 21, 2008

(Money Magazine) -- When Diane Carr, 55, received word in February that her home-equity line of credit would be canceled, she was dumbfounded. The HELOC had been open since 2003, when she bought her Woodside, Calif. home. And Carr had never even tapped it.

"It was just a security thing," she says. No matter. In recent months, tens of thousands of homeowners like Carr have been shut off from their equity as lenders try to stem losses from subprime mortgages and other high-risk loans.

As of September, delinquencies on HELOCs were up 47% year over year, according to Economy.com; the numbers are expected to be worse in 2008. In response, Countrywide has already suspended an estimated 122,000 lines, many in high-foreclosure-rate states, and USAA has frozen or reduced some 15,000 accounts.Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Citibank (C, Fortune 500), among others, are following suit.

Not all HELOCs will be frozen or downgraded, but you can be sure lenders will scrutinize every account - including yours.

If your HELOC hasn't been frozen (yet)

Know your risk. Areas where housing prices have fallen by 10% or more are prime targets for freezes, says Susan McHan, president of Opes Advisors, a mortgage banking firm in Palo Alto, Calif. Because of new lending standards, your HELOC could also be in danger if you bought your home in the past few years with little money down.

Last year consumers could easily borrow up to 100% of a home's value through a combination of a HELOC and a first mortgage. Today you'd be lucky to get up to 90%; 60% is the max in areas hit hardest by home-price declines.

Lenders are beginning to apply the same standards to existing HELOC customers. Call your bank and ask what the loan-to-value cap is on new HELOCs. If your house debt is above that, your line could be at risk. A change in credit score or a missed payment could also flag your account. Reread your contract to see if such factors allow the lender to cut you off.

Access cash now. If your line is in jeopardy and you need the HELOC to finish a renovation, you could draw a lump sum. On the downside, you'll cut your equity; you'll owe interest now; and if prices keep falling, your loan values could top your home's value. So borrow only as much as you need and put the cash in a high-yielding savings account or CD until the bills in question come due.

If your HELOC is on ice

Fight for a defrost. The letter from your lender should explain why the line was suspended and how to appeal. Some banks use automated processes to identify troubled markets.

To prove that your house hasn't been affected, ask a realtor to pull prices for houses sold within three miles in the past six months, ask your mortgage originator to intervene, or have your house reappraised. The latter can run $400, but if you were counting on the line, it may be worth it.

If a change in your risk profile is the cause, check your credit reports. Carr was told that her HELOC had been canceled because of a drop in her FICO score. But when she checked, it was above 800, so the lender reinstated her line.

Compromise. If your efforts fail, ask for a lower credit line instead of a total freeze. The bank may be more amenable if you hold your primary mortgage there, as that's an insurance policy of sorts.

Shop around. Not all banks have the same standards. If you have at least 10% equity, you may qualify with another lender. Search at bankrate.com, or click on the link above and to the right. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News

The trillion-dollar mortgage time bomb

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Among the nightmares lurking around the corner for the already battered housing and credit markets would be a meltdown at mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Although few are predicting an imminent need for a bailout just yet, credit rating agency Standard & Poor's recently placed an estimated price tag on this worst case scenario -- $420 billion to $1.1 trillion of taxpayer's money.

This dwarfs how much it cost to help banks during the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980's and early 1990's. That cost taxpayers about $250 billion in today's dollars.

S&P added that saving Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE, Fortune 500) might cost so much that the federal government's AAA credit rating, the top possible rating, might even be at risk. If that was lost, then all federal government borrowing would become more expensive.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both help the mortgage market function by purchasing pools of loans and packaging them into securities.

So it is crucial for the mortgage industry for the two agencies to continue functioning smoothly.

The two companies are known as government-sponsored entities because they have Congressional charters, which implies that the federal government is behind them.

Fannie did not comment about the S&P report. According to a statement from Freddie, the firm said the S&P report was just "a scenario analysis, not a prediction" and added that "Freddie Mac remains a well capitalized company."

Victoria Wagner, a S&P credit analyst who worked on the report, said S&P isn't predicting that Fannie and Freddie would necessarily need a bailout at this time.

But she and other analysts are concerned about the impact more problems could have on the mortgage market since the two companies have become increasingly important to the health of the industry. Both companies are forecast to report more losses this year due to declining home prices and rising mortgage defaults.

Risks increasing

Wagner pointed out that at the end of January, 82% of all mortgages in the U.S. were backed by one of the firms, up from only 46% in the second quarter of 2007.

Fannie and Freddie primarily back so-called conforming loans, those made to borrowers with good credit and large down payments. But even limited exposure to subprime loans hasn't stopped them from running up huge losses as home prices tumbled and foreclosures soared.

And Fannie and Freddie's role in the mortgage and real estate markets is likely to grow, as Congress recently allowed them to back larger mortgages, up to $729,750, up from the previous limit of $417,000.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), which regulates both firms, also recently lowered the capital requirements for Fannie and Freddie in an effort to pump $200 billion more into the credit markets.

The new loan limits will increase the risks and losses for Fannie and Freddie, said Wagner and other experts.

The high priced markets where homeowners and buyers need larger loans are now the ones seeing steep home price declines. And the default rates on larger loans are greater than the smaller loans that had previously been the core of their business.

"I don't think the message is a bailout is necessary or imminent," Wagner said. "But they're facing this increased role at a time that their own credit performance is suffering from the rifts in the housing and mortgage markets. They're both projecting much higher losses than we've seen in some time."

Some see bailout as more likely

But other experts expect that declining home values will force more borrowers who have a Fannie- or Freddie-backed loan to stop making payments in the coming months, rather than continuing to make payments on a home now worth less than their loan balance.

Rising job losses may also make it difficult for other borrowers who formerly had good credit to stay current on their mortgage payments.

"The real fundamental problem is real estate prices have been falling and they might fall substantially more," said Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist who argued for years that a bubble was forming in real estate prices. "OFHEO and Fannie and Freddie never considered the possibility of a massive real estate correction."

Some economists suggest that if investors start to see problems in the performance of loans backed by Fannie and Freddie, they'll dumping them. And that would force the federal government to step in.

"I would say there's at least a 50-50 chance of some sort of bailout. I'm not saying it will necessarily cost $1 trillion, but they'll need some kind of help, and it very well could happen this year," said Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research

Investors are signaling growing concern as well. The yield premium for securities backed by Freddie and Fannie compared to the yield on Treasury bills has grown to about 2.25 percentage points from 1.7 percentage points at the beginning of the year. That's a sign that the investors see a greater risk of Fannie and Freddie running into bigger problems.

And OFHEO, in its annual report this week, said that while Fannie and Freddie have made progress clearing up accounting problems that had dogged both firms, they remain "a significant supervisory risk."

The agency added that since current home price declines are without precedent, the firms will have a difficult time correctly pricing the risk of the mortgages they're backing.

But Jaret Seiberg, financial services analyst for policy research firm Stanford Group, said Fannie and Freddie ultimately should be able to weather the storm though simply because there is no question that the government would bail them out.

So there shouldn't be a crisis of confidence about their future in the way that there was for investment bank Bear Stearns before the Fed stepped in and agreed to back $29 billion in potential losses so JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) could buy Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500).

"What has allowed Fannie and Freddie to continue to operate when the private mortgage-backed security market dried up is their implicit government guarantee," said Seiberg. See Also

Source: Home Mortgage Rates and Real Estate News